BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//University of Liverpool Computer Science Seminar System//v2//EN
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260922T052457Z
UID:Seminar-EcCo-584@lxserverM.csc.liv.ac.uk
ORGANIZER:CN=Nicos 	Protopapas:MAILTO:N.Protopapas@liverpool.ac.uk
DTSTART:20181024T130000
DTEND:20181024T140000
SUMMARY:Economics and Computation Series
DESCRIPTION:Thomas Spooner: Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control\n\nWe investigate the restriction of animal movements as a method to control the spread of bluetongue (BT), an infectious disease of livestock. Using a simulation model of BT in conjunction with Bayesian optimisation, we derive region-dependent policies that minimise the number of infected farms during an outbreak. We demonstrate that control of BT as effective as that obtained using standard UK movement restrictions can be achieved with smaller and simpler restriction zones affecting far fewer farms. It is then shown that this approach leads to, approximately, an order of magnitude decrease in the cost to farms. Our policies are also shown to be robust to perturbations in the defining variables, introduction date of the disease and spatial features of each region. Due to the increasing temperatures associated with climate change, conventional ways of tackling these problems will soon become economically infeasible. We thus conclude by recommending Bayesian optimisation as a useful technique for the design of cost-effective epidemiological control methods.\n\nJoint work with Matthew Baylis, John Fearnley, Anne Jones, Rahul Savani, and Joanne Turner.\n\nhttps://www.csc.liv.ac.uk/research/seminars/abstract.php?id=584
LOCATION:
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR